Snow possible in nine English counties next week, while 27 may miss it

Nine English counties could see snow around 17 November, while 27 others are forecast to escape it, according to a weather-model outlook. The prediction is not a confirmed forecast of snowfall: the model indicates that the first flurries could arrive in the early hours of that day.

The counties identified as at risk are Durham, Cumbria, Northumberland, Yorkshire, Lancashire, Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon and Cornwall. Snow accumulations were shown for 6am on 17 November in the model maps described in the outlook.

The ECMWF model, used by the Met Desk and WX Charts, also indicates further flurries north of the English border in Scotland. Wales is expected to avoid the worst of the wintry conditions.

The 27 counties and areas listed as likely to miss snow are Surrey, Sussex, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Rutland, Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Wiltshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, the West Midlands, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire, Gloucestershire, Dorset, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Cheshire, Kent and Hampshire.

The Met Office’s outlook from 12 November describes a shift in conditions over the period. Rain in southern parts of the UK is expected to clear at the start, with clearer weather spreading from the north. A few wintry showers are possible in the far north, but most areas are forecast to have a spell of fine, dry weather towards the end of the following week and over the weekend.

The outlook then signals a move towards more changeable weather during the following week, as Atlantic weather fronts bring rain and some strong winds. Temperatures are expected to be above average overall, despite a cold start.

For the latter part of November, the Met Office expects unsettled conditions, with Atlantic fronts likely to cross the UK and bring heavy rain at times, alongside a chance of strong winds. Brighter, drier spells are expected between those systems. Conditions could become drier overall into early December, while temperatures are again forecast to be above normal.

The county-level snow projections and the broader Met Office outlook cover different periods and are forecasts rather than confirmation of what weather will occur. The outlook describes possible wintry showers in the far north and later unsettled weather, while the ECMWF-based projection identifies where snow could fall on 17 November.

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